Conference Program

Day 1 - Wednesday, September 25, 2019:

Time Room 1
Low Carbon Future Economy/Energy Systems
Room 2
Energy Forecasting                    
Room 3 - Mixed
10:00 Registration
10:50 Welcome & Introduction

Keynote Speech 1:


Prof. Dr. Pierre Pinson - Recent challenges with renewable energy forecasting in high dimensions

12:00 Lunch Break

 Walk to session rooms

  Session Title: Investment Uncertainty and Expectations on Market Environments Session Title: Orders Arrivals in Intraday Markets Session Title: Evaluation of Electricity Price Forecasts  
13:00 Mirjam Ambrosius, Jonas Egerer, Veronika Grimm, Adriaan van der Weijde:
The role of expectations for market design – on structural regulatory uncertainty in electricity markets
Alexander Blasberg, Nikolaus Graf von Luckner, Rüdiger Kiesel:
Modeling the Serial Structure of the Hawkes Process Parameters for Market Order Arrivals on the German Intraday Power Market 
Mario Beykirch:
Evaluation of Day-Ahead Electricity Price Predictions with Multi-Stage Stochastic Programs
13:40 Oliver Ruhnau, Lion Hirth , Aaron Praktiknjo:
Heating with wind: Economics of heat pumps and variable renewables
Anke Kramer, Rüdiger Kiesel:
An Extended Hawkes Process Model for Order Arrivals Incorporating External Influences 
Felix Nitsch, Christoph Schimeczek:
Modeling forecast errors for day-ahead electricity market prices

Coffee Break


Walk to session rooms

  Session Title: Planning decisions in grid investment Session Title: Forecasting Methods in Short-Term Electricity Markets Session Title: Trading under uncertainty in Short-Term Markets
14:50 Mathias Gabel, Silke Johanndeiter, Paula Schliessler:
The Trade-Off between Grid Expansion and Congestion Management – Assessing the Allocation Decision of a Regulated Electricity Distribution System Operator Under Different Incentive Schemes
Bartosz Uniejewski, Rafał Weron:
Regularization for quantile regression averaging. A new approach to constructing probabilistic forecasts
Nikolaus Graf von Luckner, Rüdiger Kiesel:
Modelling market order arrivals on the intraday market for electricity deliveries in Germany with the Hawkes process
15:30 Marie-Louise Kloubert:
Probabilistic modelling to analyse the influence of uncertain variables on the electrical transmission grid

Christopher Kath, Florian Ziel:
Conformal Prediction Interval Estimations with an Application to Day-Ahead and Intraday Power Markets 

Christopher Jahns, Philip Beran, Christian Furtwängler:
On the Merits of Stochastic Optimization in Balancing and Electricity Markets
16:10 End of Sessions Day 1
16:20 Departure to Folkwang Museum
16:45 Tour
18:00 Transfer to Restaurant
18:30 Dinner
21:00 End of Day 1

Day 2 - Thursday, September 26, 2019: 

Time Room 1
Low Carbon Future Economy/Energy Systems
Room 2
Energy Forecasting                    
Room 3 - Mixed

Session Title: Economics and Investment Uncertainty in the Era of Sector Coupling

Session Title: Averaging Procedures in Electricity Price Forecasting  

Christopher Ball, Stefan Vögele, Wilhelm Kuckshinrichs, Mathias Grajewski:
E-mobility from a multi-actor point of view: uncertainties and their impacts

Tomasz Serafin, Bartosz Uniejewski, Rafał Weron:
Averaging Predictive Distributions Across Calibration Windows for Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting

Munib Amin:
Methodological progress in the assessment of investment decisions in the increasingly uncertain environment of the electricity sector

Katarzyna Maciejowska, Bartosz Uniejewski, Tomasz Serafin:
Principal component forecast averaging across different calibration windows in day-ahead electricity markets
10:20 Coffee Break

Keynote Speech 2:




Prof. Dr. Norbert Schwieters - Strategies to confront rising demand and climate threats

11:30 Walk to session rooms  
  Session Title: Questions on incentive-setting in energy transition Session Title: Forecasting in Short-Term Markets Session Title: Renewable Energy Forecasting for Short-Term Markets
11:40 Kristina Nienhaus, Martin Klein, Christoph Schimeczek, Marc Deissenroth, Ulrich Frey:
Self-inforcing deflationary price dynamics under the variable market premium scheme
Peru Muniain, Aitor Ciarreta, Ainhoa Zarraga:
Jumps and cojumps in electricity price forecasting
Katarzyna Maciejowska, Weronika Nitka, Tomasz Weron:
Enhancing wind and solar generation forecasts to yield better short-term electricity price predictions
12:20 Dawud Ansari, Franziska Holz:
Between asset stranding and green transformation: Fossil-fuel-dependent developing countries towards 2055
Mawuli Segnon, Dirk Engel:
Forecasting Balancing Energy Prices
Matthias Zech, Bruno Schyska, Esther Peerlings, Lueder von Bremen:
Short-term renewable forecasting using Bayesian Neural Networks: Statistical and economic value in energy system dispatch models

Lunch Break


Keynote Speech 3:




Dr. Luca Taschini - Emissions trading systems, cap adjustments and the Market Stability Reserve

14:50 Walk to session rooms  
  Session Title: Industrial demand and its potentials Session Title: Probabilistic Forecasting of Intraday Electricity Prices  
15:00 Markus Bohlayer, Markus Fleschutz, Marco Braun, Gregor Zöttl:
Bidding in sequential markets under uncertainty – A demand side perspective
Tim Janke, Florian Steinke:
Forecasting the Price Distribution of Continuous Intraday Electricity Trading
15:40 Tobias Hübner, Serafin von Roon:
Small-scale modelling of individual measures in the industry
Michal Narajewski , Florian Ziel:
Ensemble Forecasting for Intraday Electricity Prices: Simulating Trajectories
16:20 Closing Remarks
16:30 End




Additional Information & Download


All concurrent session speakers will have approximately 40 minutes (including discussion - e. g. 30 min talk, 10 min discussion) to present their paper.